Action plan

The conceptual basis for foresight in 2009 is the 2-year operational framework set up in 2008 providing sectoral foresight projects and analyses with the purpose of generating input for drawing up an economic growth strategy for Estonia in the coming period.

Firstly, the action plan for 2008-2009 provides completing the activities launched in 2008 (Industry Engines 2018, EST_IT@2018). New activities taken up in 2009 include sectoral foresight regarding knowledge-intensive services (exports of health care, education and financial services) and the second stage of the information technology foresight (roadmaps in the ICT areas of use) as well as consolidating the foresight activities carried out so far into a growth vision for Estonia. See the figure below.

Implementation of foresight:

• Industry Engines 2018 (opportunities for restructuring Estonia's manufacturing sector and enhancing competitiveness in the changing world). Completing the project launched in 2008 that culminated in the Industry Forum. Action in 2009 involves publishing a final report with policy suggestions. Duration: 2 months (January-February). Output: the report and publication thereof. The outcome of Industry Engines 2018 will serve as an input into developing a growth vision for Estonia in 2009.

• EST_IT@2018 (more effective utilisation of information and communication technology with the purpose of enhancing the competitiveness of the Estonian economy). Completion of the first stage of the foresight project that was launched in 2008 and culminated in the Estonian ICT Future Forum. Duration: 2 months (January-February). Output: the report and publication thereof. The outcome of EST_IT@2018 will serve as an input into developing a growth vision for Estonia in 2009. For the purpose of enhancing the impact of the first stage, the second stage of ICT foresight will be launched in 2009 to initiate drawing up roadmaps in the ICT areas of use which proved to have the greatest potential in the first stage.

• Service Economy 2018 (growth potential of the knowledge-intensive services sector possessing export potential and opportunities for realising such a capacity in Estonia). The project was prepared in the fourth quarter of 2008: respective publications and existing sectoral academic potential in Estonia were mapped; representatives of different knowledge-intensive service areas were assembled for a Coffee Morning; a more detailed foresight plan was drawn up. In 2009, Estonia's service economy will be mapped and growth possibilities will be established, which includes in-depth sectoral studies in chosen areas of knowledge-based services with the purpose of specifying their export potential (exports of health care, education and financial services). Duration: approximately 12 months (January-December). Output: (a) report(s); (b) Service Economy Forum in autumn 2009. The outcome of Service Economy 2018 will serve as an input into developing a growth vision for Estonia.

• Developing a growth vision for Estonia's economy. Duration: approximately 12 months, from March 2009 to March 2010. The activities will be based on integrating the outcome of the sectoral foresight projects in 2008-2009 (vision and scenarios) and initiating a public discussion with the purpose of establishing priorities regarding the preferred scenario. Output: (a) Growth Vision 2018 report: a snapshot of the growth opportunities in the Estonian economy and activities to be undertaken to realise the opportunities. The growth strategy process will be launched at the second Futures Forum in spring 2009. The process is to conclude with the third Futures Forum scheduled for spring 2010. This is also the venue for presenting the results to the wider audience.

• The second stage of the EST_IT@2018 foresight. During the first foresight stage the ICT areas of use showing the biggest potential in Estonia were identified: medicine, education, industry, energy and financial services (including security solutions). The second stage of foresight has been planned with the purpose of initiating the drafting of roadmaps in identified areas of use. Duration: 11 months (February-December). Output: report(s) and publication thereof.

• Monitoring global trends. The Development Fund is, in the context of foresight projects and separately, monitoring the trends in the global economy that may affect the economic situation of our entrepreneurs and the country at large. Different media channels and other options are used with the purpose of broad-based communication of the trends and changes thereof. Brainstorming sessions and communication events (or series of events) will be organised, if necessary, either within the context of specific foresight projects or separately in order to establish the impact of trends.

Activities supporting foresight:

• Innovation labs, Coffee Mornings, workshops and forums have been designed to engage different parties in discussions. Innovation labs and coffee mornings will be held in order to discuss new topics and trends, prepare foresight projects or create a respective background. Workshops will serve as a venue for discussions in the course of foresight projects while forums will be used for communicating the outcome of such projects. Innovation labs have been planned to take place approximately once a week in 2009, except the three summer months, Coffee Mornings are to be held 3 to 4 times a year, workshops will be organised according to foresight action plans, and there will be 2 forums: the Futures Forum II in the spring and the Service Economy Forum in the autumn.

• Report to the Riigikogu. This is an annual legal obligation. The report to the Riigikogu represents a good opportunity for introducing the results of the foresight projects to the decision-makers, thus contributing to evoking a discussion on the future in the parliament. The report to the Riigikogu is also an important channel for disclosing operational changes in the global economy as well as for initiating and holding discussions on their impact on Estonia.

• Promoting a foresight culture in Estonia. Materials concerning foresight will be drawn up and distributed and a broader application of foresight methods in strategic planning will be encouraged. Co-operation with international foresight organisations and organisations in other countries will be pursued. The output will be as follows: web-based materials introducing foresight methods and practices, training seminars focused on target groups and advice provided to other Estonian institutions regarding the use of foresight methods in strategic planning.

• Assisting decision-makers with expertise. In order to enhance the effectiveness of foresight projects (so that the outcome of the foresight projects would materialise in real decisions) participation as experts and counselling in the field of economic policy or implementation thereof: in Enterprise Estonia's evaluation committees, policy advisory bodies, etc.

The goal of the Development Fund's investment activities is to develop Estonia's venture capital market. In order to serve that purpose, the Development Fund makes venture capital available to start-up growth companies, encourages business angels to invest into start-up companies and popularises venture capital among entrepreneurs.

Implementation of venture capital investments:

• Direct investments will continue: 6-8 investments a year will be made according to the investment strategy approved by the European Commission; approximately 80-100 potential business projects will be analysed in order to make these investments. 3-4 investments have been planned for the first half of the year and 3-4 investments for the second half.

• As regards investments made in 2008 and new investments to be made in 2009, the Development Fund and the co-investors will contribute to corporate development by participating in the work of the governing bodies (boards) of the investee companies (approximately 10 companies).

• The approximate overall volume of investments to be made in 2009 stands at 100-150 million kroons, which will be coupled with private capital on a scale provided for in European Commission regulations (arising from the situation in the global economy, up to 31 December 2010 a more flexible ratio of 70:30 of public and private sector investments is allowed).

• There will be no sectoral restrictions on investments (except the limits and restrictions laid down in the Estonian Development Fund Act). The need to establish sectoral preferences will be analysed on the basis of the Development Fund's foresight projects and the evolvement of the investment portfolio at the end of 2009.

• Possibilities for solving the issue of financing the seed or product development stages (either through a subfund, direct investments or further development of Enterprise Estonia's R&D grants) will be analysed.

• Given the constraints on the Development Fund's investment capital, subsequent to consultations with the Expert Committee, channelling up to one fund investment a year into a start-up or growth-stage subfund will be considered.

• In order to involve the Expert Committee more extensively in the process of analysing, evaluating and monitoring, reporting forms and a financial model for forwarding to the experts will be elaborated and the operating procedures of the Expert Committee will be modified.

Activities supporting investments

• A survey of the venture capital market will be carried out with the purpose of planning future developments in the area of investments and in order to develop Estonia's venture capital market.

• An electronic manual introducing venture capital will be published so as to improve the respective knowledge of market players.

• In order to develop awareness and promote a venture capital culture among market players, a three-year strategy concerning so-called soft activities will be worked out, based on the venture capital market survey.

• An initiative to establish the Estonian Venture Capital Association (EstVCA) will be undertaken so as to promote co-operation between venture capitalists (both institutional and angel investors) and satisfy the need for information. For that purpose an action plan will be elaborated in co-operation with market players, while real work will commence later in 2009 after a legal entity has been set up.

• In order to provide co-investment opportunities, an investor network/database will be set up, which will include: (a) co-investors with whom the Development Fund makes joint investments; (b) alternative investors to whom projects not suitable for the Development Fund are forwarded; (c) next stage investors for exiting from the investment in the future. In order to set up the network, all potential investors will be mapped and co-operation principles will be agreed on.

• Three topic-based discussions-seminars a year will be held to disclose the different aspects of venture capital with the purpose of contributing to the development of Estonia's venture capital market. In addition, presentations introducing venture capital at conferences and seminars organised by other parties that bring together suitable target groups have been foreseen.

• The Development Fund is co-operating with international venture capital associations and it assembles and publishes promotional materials, channels venture capital information towards the public and relevant key groups (including via the web).

• Based on the experience gained from the first investments made, work processes will be improved, starting from supporting documents and analysis tools up to the activities related to the early planning of the process of exiting from an investment.

• The Development Fund is planning to participate as a partner in different business plan competitions and other relevant events in order to introduce venture capital investment and promote entrepreneurship and doing international business.

• A market-based employee motivation system will be worked out proceeding from the efficiency of the investment portfolio and investment activities and in compliance with the requirements of the European Commission.

The Development Fund's interactive Internet portal will be further elaborated, i.e. it will be linked to different relevant websites and portals in order to attract more visitors.

Communication principles targeted at the English-speaking public (including the English-language version of the Internet portal) will be elaborated. On one hand, the objective is to promote Estonia to the entrepreneurs of neighbouring countries as a country where technology projects are introduced to the world (the so-called Skype country). On the other hand, the objective is to create an image of Estonia among foreign representatives and journalists residing in Estonia as a Nordic country looking strategically into the future.

Up-to-date support services will be guaranteed to the principal areas while administration, accounting, financial management and human resources management will be handled in line with the needs of the principal areas and quality standards.

Efficient co-operation with the Riigikogu, the government of the Republic of Estonia, the ministries, education, research and business policies implementation agencies, business organisations and the public will be pursued.